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1:07pm on Wednesday, 16th March, 2022:
Anecdote
The 1839 Treaty of London established the neutrality of Belgium. The European great powers of the time agreed to respect and to defend the neutrality of the new kingdom. When Germany invaded in 1914, this 75-year-old treaty was the formal reason that the UK went to war.
If Ukraine gives up territory to Russia and promises in return never to join NATO, on the face of it this would allow Russia to wait seven or eight years for its economy to recover then to attack again. However, if NATO guaranteed the neutrality of Ukraine then this couldn't happen. What's more, NATO doesn't even need Ukraine's or Russia's consent to do this: an alliance can guarantee the independence of a sovereign territory that is not part of that alliance.
Ukraine needs to be a member of NATO to send its armies to defend other NATO countries that are attacked. It doesn't have to be a member of NATO to receive NATO's protection if it's invaded.
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